Month: August 2023

Earlier this summer, Guatemala held its general elections which resulted in two presidential candidates earning enough votes to go on to the August 20th election: Sandra Torres of the conservative National Unity of Hope (UNE) party and Bernardo Arévalo of the progressive Movimiento Semilla party. Throughout the 2023 election season and in the aftermath of the general elections, it is evident that this pivotal process was marred by controversies, corruption, and confusion. To clear things up and learn more, Mijente hosted two livestream conversations on “¿Que Pasa en Guatemala?”. Below, you can learn more through our short recap, and find the full conversation here (currently in Spanish with English captions coming soon). 

The Political Landscape and the Electoral Governing Bodies

Our first interview on Monday featured Maríajosé España, an experienced independent journalist known for her insightful analysis of social and political issues in Guatemala. She’s been reporting directly about what’s been happening on the ground these last eight months, and she joined us to share about the social and political context that have defined these elections.

España set the scene for us: the political landscape in Guatemala has been anything but straightforward. There was a wide range of controversies and irregularities casting shadows over the entire 2023 electoral process.

In the beginning, there was some sense of optimism for a fair and transparent election through their independent governing body. The Supreme Electoral Tribunal (TSE) is the highest authority on electoral affairs, an independent body of political control. As stated by España, TSE has “an obligation to protect the people’s vote and defend the decisions of the majority”. But voter optimism and trust in this system didn’t last very long, due to various conflicting actions on the part of TSE. 

For one, the secrecy and lack of transparency displayed by TSE officials contradicted their mandate to uphold the integrity of the voting process. Keeping voters and the public at large from accessing information became the game. This shadiness eroded public trust and contributed to the skepticism surrounding the legitimacy of the elections.

They didn’t give press conferences. Meetings that were open to the public were suddenly closed.

Maríajosé España

On top of that, the press revealed that two of the five TSE magistrates falsified academic credentials before assuming office. This highlighted a disturbing lack of accountability within the institution responsible for overseeing the elections. Unsurprisingly, such actions raised questions about the qualifications of those in charge among voters. Additionally it underscored a culture of unchecked power and a disregard for the standards of public service.

A Continuing Trend of Corruption and Confusion

The TSE presented a proposal to introduce new software programs to revolutionize the voting process, generating considerable controversy. As España shared, this would have completely shifted the way Guatemalan voters engaged in the electoral process since 1986. The lack of transparency in the decision-making behind this proposal generated suspicion around 1) ulterior motives and 2) allocation of resources. Ultimately, the proposal was not approved. This, along with everything else, became indicative of a broader issue where the authorities’ intentions and actions were concealed from public scrutiny.

Then, there came the discrepancies in the approval and rejection of presidential candidacies, which further reflected a flawed and inconsistent vetting process. “There’s one example that I really like to mention because it’s just so exemplary of what’s happening,” Mariajose continued. “The candidacy of Carlos Preciado Navarijo for mayor of Ocós, San Marcos.” The same Carlos Preciado Navarijo that was extradited to the United States on drug trafficking charges in 2021. The fact that Navarijo’s candidacy was accepted while other eligible candidates were rejected revealed a shocking lack of due diligence and, to Guatemalan voters everywhere, undermined the credibility of the entire electoral process.

One notable rejection came against the Movement for the Liberation of People (MLP) party, a group of leftist, indigenous, and deep community roots. Under suspicious circumstances presidential candidate Thelma Cabrera and vice presidential candidate Jordán Rodas were banned from participating. The courts alleged that Rodas hadn’t notified the TSE of a pending legal case and he was not “suitable” for office. However, as shared by España, the TSE was purposefully misinterpreting the case, which had, in fact, already been resolved. In the end, the courts denied MLP’s appeal of the ban, and citizens took to the streets in protest of the decision. It was clear to all that this ruling “undermine[d] the rights of all Guatemalans to participate in free and fair elections”.

The blatant corruption isn’t the only thing that had voters talking. Igniting a surge of discussion is the recent and unexpected success of the Semilla party. Initially dismissed as a minor political player, the party was constantly overlooked in debates and public forums. Semilla broke new ground by defying predictions it would place eighth at best, and instead advanced to the second round of elections. Semilla ultimately outperformed candidates like Zury Rios and Manuel Conde, conservatives seemingly backed by the entire political establishment. In a shocking turn of events, Semilla also managed to secure an impressive 24 seats in Congress. This is a sharp jump from their previous win of 9 seats in the last election.

Semilla’s unexpected surge signifies a sharp shift from the status quo – it’s now the third-strongest party in Guatemala’s political landscape. 

What is being said a lot now, is that the system itself became its own downfall — by throwing out all these candidates….And so it was. They cleared the field for Semilla. They didn’t see it coming. If they had seen it coming, they would have taken them down too. But it was a surprise for everybody.

Maríajosé España

A Better Guatemala, for All, is Possible

But if there’s one thing to take away from Maríajosé España’s interview, it’s that we all have a role to play in ensuring a more just and equitable future for Guatemala, especially those with roots in the country. “We don’t think about those who were obligated to migrate elsewhere. But they’re there. And they’re connected, they’re worried about what’s happening in the country. And what’s happening to their families who remain in Guatemala. I believe it’s really important to engage this way, and I’d invite you to stay informed.” 

A key piece of staying informed is also being willing to call out misinformation, which has become rampant in the last eight months. “A part of combating it is not just being aware of it, but also helping to share information that we see is real. And so I’d invite you to keep talking to each other, and share information that is verified to help combat it. And keep generating these spaces of conversation,” España emphasized. 

With the elections less than a week away, España got real about the Guatemala that the winner, whether it be Sandra Torres or Bernardo Arévalo, will inherit: a nation grappling with a broad spectrum of issues, with eroded public trust in the institutions that are supposed to serve them.

At the end of the day though, Maríajosé España reminded us that the change Guatemala needs “will have to be everyone’s effort… It’s not just about candidates or politicians who win, it’s also about our efforts in our spaces.” 

Note: Want to learn more about the Semilla party and their vision for a Guatemala that serves the people and “generates prosperity instead of inequality and poverty”? Check out our recap of the second interview of the “¿Que Pasa en Guatemala?” series, with Ronalth Ochaeta Aguilar.

While Guatemala’s political establishment was busy sabotaging candidates and seemingly influencing the courts – they forgot about the power of the people. Bernardo Arévalo of Movimiento Semilla party received enough votes to go on to the final round on August 20th, against conservative Sanda Torres. Despite the chaotic electoral season, the voters raised their voices to support Semilla, a grassroots, anti-corruption party. 

The Origins of Semilla 

With the political context shared by Mariajose España fresh in mind, we continued the “¿Que Pasa en Guatemala?” conversation on Tuesday. We interviewed Ronalth Ochaeta Aguilar, a prominent figure within Guatemala’s Semilla political movement. Ochaeta shared insights into the origins, objectives, and challenges faced by Semilla striving for change in Guatemala’s rapidly evolving political landscape. Below, you can learn more through our short recap, and find the full conversation here (currently in Spanish with English captions coming soon). 

Like most progressive movements, Semilla’s inception in 2015 rose as a direct response to the widespread dissatisfaction with the status quo in Guatemala. Ochaeta says that the people recognized the urgent need for a political “project” that could challenge the existing narrative, legitimize itself, and bring about transformative change. 

Ochaeta gave us context by describing what Semilla was up against and shedding light on the oppressive weight that hung over Guatemala’s previous elections. “There’s a phenomenon known as the spiral of silence,” he shared. “In other words, there is an authoritarian atmosphere here, even in public institutions, where people were essentially forced to vote for candidate X, and that was communicated in a very regular manner.” This culture of manufactured consent was one of the many things Semilla sought out to overturn. 

The Realities of the Fight Ahead

Guatemala’s political establishment has been fighting this call for change with every power at their disposal. Ochaeta shared that there’s a unique duality to representing Semilla in this climate and told us about what it meant for him to exist on both ends of the spectrum. “On the positive side, when you visit communities, connect with neighbors, and engage with grassroots organizations, the reception is warm and welcoming. People are full of hope, and you see it in their eyes. This emotional impact gives us strength, like positive vibes that help us continue our journey.”

Next, he shared the political challenges: “On the flip side, there’s the other aspect. You see friends, acquaintances, party members forced into exile, facing a barrage of lawyers and judges whose goal is to attack and criminalize them. This is done just like with anyone from the social movement, those defending their land or water rights, for example.”

“You realize that the state, this Leviathan with teeth, wants to devour you. It’s challenging to navigate this landscape, but winning helps to defuse the monster.” -Ronalth Ochaeta Aguilar 

The metaphorical monster won’t be easy to beat. It represents decades of political corruption, entrenched power, and fear that seeks to subdue any whisper of change. Ochaeta and other leaders within Semilla understand the gravity of their commitment and the enormity of the task ahead. They also know one key thing: the intensity of the opposition’s attacks to suppress this popular movement stem from one undeniable reality – their fear. “If the monster is attacking, it’s because it’s afraid.” Ochaeta said. “They’re the ones who are afraid.”

The Values that Guide Semilla 

Despite facing significant challenges and limited resources, Semilla’s is rooted in a commitment to rebuild Guatemala’s institutions and rid them of corruption. “We know that we won’t eradicate corruption completely. We understand that achieving political agreements and decisions in a congress where the corrupt still hold the majority will be very challenging.” Ochaeta shared. 

Regardless of whether the establishment is with it or not, the party envisions a transformed country with a focus on social development, competitive yet environmentally responsible economic growth, and a reimagined social protection system that empowers the most vulnerable. For Semilla, those who stand with them are more than numbers, they represent a powerful source of legitimacy and strength – the foundation that makes it possible to advocate for Guatemala’s well-being and its potential to thrive. 

What Can We Expect from Sunday’s Election? 

As the pivotal day of the election quickly approaches, Ochaeta’s assessment lays out three clear trajectories of what possibly lies ahead for Guatemala, shared below. 

1. The first outcome is clouded in uncertainty: the possibility that Semilla loses. Ocheata acknowledges that this outcome casts an unsettling reality for the movement. He candidly revealed that many of the leaders who stand at the forefront of it are being systematically criminalized. The consequences of a loss extend far beyond political defeat. For some, it means exile.

Ochaeta emphasized that the authoritarian trajectory of a Torres presidency threatens not only democracy, but the lives of Guatemalan citizens everywhere. So the urgency to avert this possible outcome underscores how critical the stakes are come Sunday. 

2. The second exciting outcome, where Semilla emerges victorious, would be no less demanding. From August 21st until January 14th, Semilla would have to embark on a fierce battle to keep its spirit alive and vigilant. He lays bare the strategies employed by opposition forces – the potential to cancel the party or initiate legal proceedings aimed at dismantling its foundation. 

In the halls of power, a weakened caucus in the Congress of the Republic could emerge, limiting the movement’s capacity to bring about substantial change for Guatemala. Still, this doesn’t deter their resolve to win and represent the country as a party of the people.

3. And then, a third possibility: one where Semilla’s victory serves as a catalyst to engage actors from every sector. Where a national agenda is crafted that bridges divides and channels collective efforts toward a brighter future. The movement’s ascendancy could pave the way for executive policies and legislative reforms within the Congress of the Republic, shaping Guatemala’s trajectory from the ground up.  

Regardless of the outcome, Ochaeta’s message is one of resilience and unity. He shared that the movement remains steadfast, unfettered by the fear tactics of those in power. Semilla’s journey forward is one of “determination, courage, and a vision for a better Guatemala” – and we can’t wait to see all they achieve next.